第23頁
[1] Cullen Murphy,Are We Rome?The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America(New York:Mariner Books,2007).
[2] Paul Kennedy,The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:Economic 插nge and Military Conflict Among the Great Powers from1500to2000(New York:Random House,1987).
[3] Of course,there were many more causes of this complex phenomenon.See Ramsay MacMullen,Corruption and the Decline of Rome(New Haven:Yale University Press,1988).
[4] See Nicholas Kristof,"We're not No.1!We're not No.1!"New York Times,April3,2014.
[5] "The jobs machine,"The Economist,April13,2013.
[6] Klaus Schwab and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,The Global Competitiveness Report2013-14(Davos:World Economic Forum,2013).Niall Ferguson,"How America lost its way,"Wall Street Journal,June7,2013.
[7] Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources:An Assessment of137Shale Formations in41Countries Outside the United States(Washington,DC:US Energy Information Agency,2013),p.3.
[8] 2014Global R&D Funding Forecast(Columbus:Batelle Memorial Institute,2014).
[9] US Patent Statistics 插rt,Calendar Years1963-2013(Washington,DC:The United States Patent and Trademark Office).
[10] For a more optimistic view of American savings,see Ri插rd N.Cooper,"Global imbalances:Globalization,demography,and sustainability,"Journal of Economic Perspectives22,Summer2008,p.95.
[11] Niall Ferguson,"An empire at risk,"Newsweek,December7,2009,p.28;and"A Greek crisis is coming to America,"Financial Times,February11,2010.See also,Francis Warnock,"How dangerous is US government debt?The risk of a sudden spike in US interest rates,"Council on Foreign Relations Report,June2010;available at:http://www.cfr.org/publication/22408/how_dangerous_is_us_government_debt.html.
[12] Institute of Higher Education of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,"Academic ranking of the world universities-2009";available at:http://www.arwu.org/ARWU2009.jsp.
[13] "Are higher and lower performing students making gains?"The Nation's Report Card(Washington,DC:National Center for Education Statistics,US Department of Education,2013);available at:http://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading_math_2013/#/gains-percentiles.
[14] Viktória Kis and Simon Field,Time for the US to Reskill?What the Survey of Adult Skills Says(Washington,DC:Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,2013),p.12.
[15] Sam Dillon,"Many nations passing US in education,expert says,"New York Times,March10,2010.
[16] "Gini in the bottle,"The Economist,November26,2013.
[17] Eduardo Porter,"A relentless widening of disparity in wealth,"New York Times,March12,2014;"Class in America:Mobility measured,The Economist,February1,2014;Lawrence Summers,"US inequality goes beyond dollars and cents,"Washington Post,June8,2014.
[18] Francis Fukuyama,"American power is waning because Washington won't stop quarreling,"The New Republic,March10,2014.
[19] Sarah Binder,"Polarized we govern?"Washington,DC,Brookings Center for Effective PublicManagement,May2014,p.18.
[20] Pew Research Center for the People and the Press,"Political polarization in the American public,"June12,2014.
[21] Henry Kissinger,"America at the apex,"The National Interest,Summer2001,p.15.
[22] Hart-Teeter Poll for the Council of Excellence in Government,reported in the Washington Post,March24,1997.See also Seymour Martin Lipset and William Schneider,The Confidence Gap(Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1987)and Jeffrey Jones,"Trust in Government Remains Low,"Gallup,September18,2008.
[23] Harris Poll,1966-2011,"Confidence in Congress and Supreme Court drops to lowest level in manyyears,"May18,2011.
[24] Joseph S.Nye,Philip Zelikow,and David King,eds,Why People Don't Trust Government(Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1996).
[25] Department of the Treasury,Update on Reducing the Federal Tax Gap and Improving Voluntary Compliance(Washington,DC:July8,2009)."Employment tax evasion",Criminal Investigation Management Information System(Washington,DC:Internal Revenue Service,October2013).
[26] The World Bank,Governance Matters2009:Worldwide Governance Indicators,1996-2008(Washington,DC:The World Bank,2009).
[27] Steven Holmes,"Defying forecasts,census response ends declining trend,"New York Times,September20,2000;Sam Roberts,"1in3Americans failed to return census forms,"New York Times,April17,2010.
[28] Robert Putnam,Bowling Alone:The Collapse and Revival of American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2000);see also Better Together:Restoring the American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2003).
[29] "What's wrong in Washington,"The Economist,February29,2010,p.11.
[30] David Frum,"Crashing the party,"Foreign Affairs93/5,September/October2014,p.46.
第六章 權力轉移和全球化的複雜性
作為全球信息革命的結果，21世紀正發生著兩個巨大的權力轉移：國家之間從西向東的權力轉移和從政府到非國家行為體的實力擴散。[1]
我在前面談到的第一種轉移——國家之間的權力轉移——可能不會在未來的三十年裡結束美國在全球均勢的核心地位。
目前還不太清楚這種轉移是否會摧毀前面提到的被阿米塔夫·阿查亞稱為“美國的世界秩序”的國際體制，他的一家影院多個影廳的區域對話隱喻假設了一種架構，但卻沒有包括如何來提供和維護這樣一種架構的細節。中國是否會加入並提供霸權穩定論者們所尋找的公共物品？毫無疑問，中國從世界貿易組織和國際貨幣基金組織這樣的開放機構中受益匪淺，但中國的記錄遠不是盡善盡美的。像美國在20世紀兩次世界大戰中間的那段時期那樣，只要有人在開車，中國就對搭便車的誘惑來者不拒。我們也不太可能會看到其他新興大國所提供的全球公共物品。
[2] Paul Kennedy,The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:Economic 插nge and Military Conflict Among the Great Powers from1500to2000(New York:Random House,1987).
[3] Of course,there were many more causes of this complex phenomenon.See Ramsay MacMullen,Corruption and the Decline of Rome(New Haven:Yale University Press,1988).
[4] See Nicholas Kristof,"We're not No.1!We're not No.1!"New York Times,April3,2014.
[5] "The jobs machine,"The Economist,April13,2013.
[6] Klaus Schwab and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,The Global Competitiveness Report2013-14(Davos:World Economic Forum,2013).Niall Ferguson,"How America lost its way,"Wall Street Journal,June7,2013.
[7] Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources:An Assessment of137Shale Formations in41Countries Outside the United States(Washington,DC:US Energy Information Agency,2013),p.3.
[8] 2014Global R&D Funding Forecast(Columbus:Batelle Memorial Institute,2014).
[9] US Patent Statistics 插rt,Calendar Years1963-2013(Washington,DC:The United States Patent and Trademark Office).
[10] For a more optimistic view of American savings,see Ri插rd N.Cooper,"Global imbalances:Globalization,demography,and sustainability,"Journal of Economic Perspectives22,Summer2008,p.95.
[11] Niall Ferguson,"An empire at risk,"Newsweek,December7,2009,p.28;and"A Greek crisis is coming to America,"Financial Times,February11,2010.See also,Francis Warnock,"How dangerous is US government debt?The risk of a sudden spike in US interest rates,"Council on Foreign Relations Report,June2010;available at:http://www.cfr.org/publication/22408/how_dangerous_is_us_government_debt.html.
[12] Institute of Higher Education of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,"Academic ranking of the world universities-2009";available at:http://www.arwu.org/ARWU2009.jsp.
[13] "Are higher and lower performing students making gains?"The Nation's Report Card(Washington,DC:National Center for Education Statistics,US Department of Education,2013);available at:http://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading_math_2013/#/gains-percentiles.
[14] Viktória Kis and Simon Field,Time for the US to Reskill?What the Survey of Adult Skills Says(Washington,DC:Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,2013),p.12.
[15] Sam Dillon,"Many nations passing US in education,expert says,"New York Times,March10,2010.
[16] "Gini in the bottle,"The Economist,November26,2013.
[17] Eduardo Porter,"A relentless widening of disparity in wealth,"New York Times,March12,2014;"Class in America:Mobility measured,The Economist,February1,2014;Lawrence Summers,"US inequality goes beyond dollars and cents,"Washington Post,June8,2014.
[18] Francis Fukuyama,"American power is waning because Washington won't stop quarreling,"The New Republic,March10,2014.
[19] Sarah Binder,"Polarized we govern?"Washington,DC,Brookings Center for Effective PublicManagement,May2014,p.18.
[20] Pew Research Center for the People and the Press,"Political polarization in the American public,"June12,2014.
[21] Henry Kissinger,"America at the apex,"The National Interest,Summer2001,p.15.
[22] Hart-Teeter Poll for the Council of Excellence in Government,reported in the Washington Post,March24,1997.See also Seymour Martin Lipset and William Schneider,The Confidence Gap(Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1987)and Jeffrey Jones,"Trust in Government Remains Low,"Gallup,September18,2008.
[23] Harris Poll,1966-2011,"Confidence in Congress and Supreme Court drops to lowest level in manyyears,"May18,2011.
[24] Joseph S.Nye,Philip Zelikow,and David King,eds,Why People Don't Trust Government(Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1996).
[25] Department of the Treasury,Update on Reducing the Federal Tax Gap and Improving Voluntary Compliance(Washington,DC:July8,2009)."Employment tax evasion",Criminal Investigation Management Information System(Washington,DC:Internal Revenue Service,October2013).
[26] The World Bank,Governance Matters2009:Worldwide Governance Indicators,1996-2008(Washington,DC:The World Bank,2009).
[27] Steven Holmes,"Defying forecasts,census response ends declining trend,"New York Times,September20,2000;Sam Roberts,"1in3Americans failed to return census forms,"New York Times,April17,2010.
[28] Robert Putnam,Bowling Alone:The Collapse and Revival of American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2000);see also Better Together:Restoring the American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2003).
[29] "What's wrong in Washington,"The Economist,February29,2010,p.11.
[30] David Frum,"Crashing the party,"Foreign Affairs93/5,September/October2014,p.46.
第六章 權力轉移和全球化的複雜性
作為全球信息革命的結果，21世紀正發生著兩個巨大的權力轉移：國家之間從西向東的權力轉移和從政府到非國家行為體的實力擴散。[1]
我在前面談到的第一種轉移——國家之間的權力轉移——可能不會在未來的三十年裡結束美國在全球均勢的核心地位。
目前還不太清楚這種轉移是否會摧毀前面提到的被阿米塔夫·阿查亞稱為“美國的世界秩序”的國際體制，他的一家影院多個影廳的區域對話隱喻假設了一種架構，但卻沒有包括如何來提供和維護這樣一種架構的細節。中國是否會加入並提供霸權穩定論者們所尋找的公共物品？毫無疑問，中國從世界貿易組織和國際貨幣基金組織這樣的開放機構中受益匪淺，但中國的記錄遠不是盡善盡美的。像美國在20世紀兩次世界大戰中間的那段時期那樣，只要有人在開車，中國就對搭便車的誘惑來者不拒。我們也不太可能會看到其他新興大國所提供的全球公共物品。